News / Blog

As the new year kicks off, Harry Stahel, Reese Energy Consulting’s Director of Strategic Planning and Financial Forecasting takes a quick “then and now” look at commodity price changes that will impact E&P reserve calculations and investor presentation narratives.  For the 2017 reserve report, the SEC WTI price was $45.19 but the 5-year WTI forward strip on Jan 1, 2018 was $54.78 and we heard the “future is $10 per barrel brighter than the past” story.  Natural gas was mostly lost in the discussion since the 5-year NYMEX strip of $2.84 was only $0.06 lower than the $2.90 SEC price. Fast forward a year. Now, the 2018 SEC reserve report shows commodity prices are now higher than the 5-year strips for both oil and gas. Although the 2018 SEC WTI price increased by more than $10 higher from 2017, the fourth-quarter drop in oil prices has lowered the 5-year WTI strip on Jan 4, 2019 to $55.54, which is $3.63 lower than the SEC price of $51.91 so we expect the oil narrative to change. We think natural gas will be a bigger part of the discussion this year since the SEC gas price rose to $2.96 for 2018, but the Jan 4, 2019 5-year NYMEX strip is $0.27/MMBtu lower at $2.69. We’ve seen the 2-year cycle flip-flop before and I’m sure we’ll see it again.  How can we help you strategically plan for changing commodity prices? Learn more about Harry Stahel at  and our collaboration with Reese Energy Consulting at