Contrarians, rejoice. In response to the IEA’s prediction last month that global demand for crude oil will peak before 2030, OPEC says, “Not so fast, cowboy.” Elaborating further, OPEC, which has just released its World Oil Outlook, estimates demand for oil will increase by 3 MMBOED through at least 2045. The IEA will drop its long-term forecast in the next few weeks, then we can all compare notes.
Reese Energy Consulting today is following the latest reports from world energy prognosticators that always add cream to our coffee. Back in September, the IEA announced its latest predictions of declining oil demand were based on the growing adoption of EVs and renewables. This, on the heels of a June report that warned “oil producers need to pay careful attention to the gathering pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition.” To which OPEC blinked and raised its demand forecast while dismissing any notion that renewable energies posed a threat to “its existence.” In stark contrast to the IEA, OPEC bases its predictions on population, economy, and modernized energy services growth, primarily in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
Switching to natural gas demand, Rystad Energy has recently forecast the world will require a lot more production from regions that need to giddy-up their unconventional sources and supply. Here in the U.S., I think we have that one licked.