If market forecasters are correct, natural gas producers will take it on the chin again in 2024 before the heavens part and gears start turning at new LNG export terminals adding capacity in 2025. Reese Energy Consulting today is following the latest on a perfect storm at hand for natural gas, whipped up by an unseasonably warmer winter, hammered prices, oversupply, a delayed startup on a large Gulf Coast LNG plant—and, of course, an election year that could flip everything on its head.

In an ironic twist to a milder winter, a weeklong freeze this month triggered the cancellation of five LNG cargoes set to sail from La., and Texas. To put this in $$$ perspective, Cheniere requires a 40-day notice for cancellations. Gas storage is up to its eyeballs as producers continue to output prolific volumes and inventory more supplies ahead of that holy-moly moment when more LNG lights come on. But here comes that storm as one of those LNG lights—ExxonMobil’s Golden Pass LNG terminal with a peak capacity of 18.1 MTA—has recently pushed startup to 2025. Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 and the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansions, however, are expected to welcome first feedgas flows this summer.

Then there’s an election year—and it’s a most pivotal one that could decide the fate of the U.S. LNG industry dependent on natural gas, of which we are the world’s largest producer of both. The administration is now rattling global markets reliant on our supplies by pausing any new LNG permits this year. Our take? Storms pass, heavens part, gears start running, and the cream always rises to the top.